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Near-real time fires detection using satellite imagery in Sudan conflict

Atwal, Kuldip Singh, Pfoser, Dieter, Rothbart, Daniel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The challenges of ongoing war in Sudan highlight the need for rapid monitoring and analysis of such conflicts. Advances in deep learning and readily available satellite remote sensing imagery allow for near real-time monitoring. This paper uses 4-band imagery from Planet Labs with a deep learning model to show that fire damage in armed conflicts can be monitored with minimal delay. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using five case studies in Sudan. We show that, compared to a baseline, the automated method captures the active fires and charred areas more accurately. Our results indicate that using 8-band imagery or time series of such imagery only result in marginal gains. Keywords: 1. Introduction The ongoing armed conflict in Sudan began in April 2023.


EEG-Based Consumer Behaviour Prediction: An Exploration from Classical Machine Learning to Graph Neural Networks

Afshar, Mohammad Parsa, Azimi, Aryan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prediction of consumer behavior is one of the important purposes in marketing, cognitive neuroscience, and human-computer interaction. The electroencephalography (EEG) data can help analyze the decision process by providing detailed information about the brain's neural activity. In this research, a comparative approach is utilized for predicting consumer behavior by EEG data. In the first step, the features of the EEG data from the NeuMa dataset were extracted and cleaned. For the Graph Neural Network (GNN) models, the brain connectivity features were created. Different machine learning models, such as classical models and Graph Neural Networks, are used and compared. The GNN models with different architectures are implemented to have a comprehensive comparison; furthermore, a wide range of classical models, such as ensemble models, are applied, which can be very helpful to show the difference and performance of each model on the dataset. Although the results did not show a significant difference overall, the GNN models generally performed better in some basic criteria where classical models were not satisfactory. This study not only shows that combining EEG signal analysis and machine learning models can provide an approach to deeper understanding of consumer behavior, but also provides a comprehensive comparison between the machine learning models that have been widely used in previous studies in the EEG-based neuromarketing such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), and the models which are not used or rarely used in the field, like Graph Neural Networks.


Statistically Significant $k$NNAD by Selective Inference

Niihori, Mizuki, Katsuoka, Teruyuki, Shiraishi, Tomohiro, Nishino, Shuichi, Takeuchi, Ichiro

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we investigate the problem of unsupervised anomaly detection using the k-Nearest Neighbor method. The k-Nearest Neighbor Anomaly Detection (kNNAD) is a simple yet effective approach for identifying anomalies across various domains and fields. A critical challenge in anomaly detection, including kNNAD, is appropriately quantifying the reliability of detected anomalies. To address this, we formulate kNNAD as a statistical hypothesis test and quantify the probability of false detection using $p$-values. The main technical challenge lies in performing both anomaly detection and statistical testing on the same data, which hinders correct $p$-value calculation within the conventional statistical testing framework. To resolve this issue, we introduce a statistical hypothesis testing framework called Selective Inference (SI) and propose a method named Statistically Significant NNAD (Stat-kNNAD). By leveraging SI, the Stat-kNNAD method ensures that detected anomalies are statistically significant with theoretical guarantees. The proposed Stat-kNNAD method is applicable to anomaly detection in both the original feature space and latent feature spaces derived from deep learning models. Through numerical experiments on synthetic data and applications to industrial product anomaly detection, we demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the Stat-kNNAD method.


Enhancing Cryptocurrency Market Forecasting: Advanced Machine Learning Techniques and Industrial Engineering Contributions

Pinky, Jannatun Nayeem, Akula, Ramya

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cryptocurrencies, as decentralized digital assets, have experienced rapid growth and adoption, with over 23,000 cryptocurrencies and a market capitalization nearing \$1.1 trillion (about \$3,400 per person in the US) as of 2023. This dynamic market presents significant opportunities and risks, highlighting the need for accurate price prediction models to manage volatility. This chapter comprehensively reviews machine learning (ML) techniques applied to cryptocurrency price prediction from 2014 to 2024. We explore various ML algorithms, including linear models, tree-based approaches, and advanced deep learning architectures such as transformers and large language models. Additionally, we examine the role of sentiment analysis in capturing market sentiment from textual data like social media posts and news articles to anticipate price fluctuations. With expertise in optimizing complex systems and processes, industrial engineers are pivotal in enhancing these models. They contribute by applying principles of process optimization, efficiency, and risk mitigation to improve computational performance and data management. This chapter highlights the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency price prediction, the integration of emerging technologies, and the significant role of industrial engineers in refining predictive models. By addressing current limitations and exploring future research directions, this chapter aims to advance the development of more accurate and robust prediction systems, supporting better-informed investment decisions and more stable market behavior.


Association rule mining with earthquake data collected from Turkiye region

Alturan, Baha, Turker, Ilker

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.


The Troubling Emergence of Hallucination in Large Language Models -- An Extensive Definition, Quantification, and Prescriptive Remediations

Rawte, Vipula, Chakraborty, Swagata, Pathak, Agnibh, Sarkar, Anubhav, Tonmoy, S. M Towhidul Islam, Chadha, Aman, Sheth, Amit P., Das, Amitava

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have garnered widespread acclaim for their remarkable emerging capabilities. However, the issue of hallucination has parallelly emerged as a by-product, posing significant concerns. While some recent endeavors have been made to identify and mitigate different types of hallucination, there has been a limited emphasis on the nuanced categorization of hallucination and associated mitigation methods. To address this gap, we offer a fine-grained discourse on profiling hallucination based on its degree, orientation, and category, along with offering strategies for alleviation. As such, we define two overarching orientations of hallucination: (i) factual mirage (FM) and (ii) silver lining (SL). To provide a more comprehensive understanding, both orientations are further sub-categorized into intrinsic and extrinsic, with three degrees of severity - (i) mild, (ii) moderate, and (iii) alarming. We also meticulously categorize hallucination into six types: (i) acronym ambiguity, (ii) numeric nuisance, (iii) generated golem, (iv) virtual voice, (v) geographic erratum, and (vi) time wrap. Furthermore, we curate HallucInation eLiciTation (HILT), a publicly available dataset comprising of 75,000 samples generated using 15 contemporary LLMs along with human annotations for the aforementioned categories. Finally, to establish a method for quantifying and to offer a comparative spectrum that allows us to evaluate and rank LLMs based on their vulnerability to producing hallucinations, we propose Hallucination Vulnerability Index (HVI). We firmly believe that HVI holds significant value as a tool for the wider NLP community, with the potential to serve as a rubric in AI-related policy-making. In conclusion, we propose two solution strategies for mitigating hallucinations.


Towards Foundation Models for Learning on Tabular Data

Zhang, Han, Wen, Xumeng, Zheng, Shun, Xu, Wei, Bian, Jiang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning on tabular data underpins numerous real-world applications. Despite considerable efforts in developing effective learning models for tabular data, current transferable tabular models remain in their infancy, limited by either the lack of support for direct instruction following in new tasks or the neglect of acquiring foundational knowledge and capabilities from diverse tabular datasets. In this paper, we propose Tabular Foundation Models (TabFMs) to overcome these limitations. TabFMs harness the potential of generative tabular learning, employing a pre-trained large language model (LLM) as the base model and fine-tuning it using purpose-designed objectives on an extensive range of tabular datasets. This approach endows TabFMs with a profound understanding and universal capabilities essential for learning on tabular data. Our evaluations underscore TabFM's effectiveness: not only does it significantly excel in instruction-following tasks like zero-shot and in-context inference, but it also showcases performance that approaches, and in instances, even transcends, the renowned yet mysterious closed-source LLMs like GPT-4. Furthermore, when fine-tuning with scarce data, our model achieves remarkable efficiency and maintains competitive performance with abundant training data. Finally, while our results are promising, we also delve into TabFM's limitations and potential opportunities, aiming to stimulate and expedite future research on developing more potent TabFMs.


Twitter Data Analysis: Izmir Earthquake Case

Agrali, Özgür, Sökün, Hakan, Karaarslan, Enis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

T\"urkiye is located on a fault line; earthquakes often occur on a large and small scale. There is a need for effective solutions for gathering current information during disasters. We can use social media to get insight into public opinion. This insight can be used in public relations and disaster management. In this study, Twitter posts on Izmir Earthquake that took place on October 2020 are analyzed. We question if this analysis can be used to make social inferences on time. Data mining and natural language processing (NLP) methods are used for this analysis. NLP is used for sentiment analysis and topic modelling. The latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm is used for topic modelling. We used the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model working with Transformers architecture for sentiment analysis. It is shown that the users shared their goodwill wishes and aimed to contribute to the initiated aid activities after the earthquake. The users desired to make their voices heard by competent institutions and organizations. The proposed methods work effectively. Future studies are also discussed.


Automatic autism spectrum disorder detection using artificial intelligence methods with MRI neuroimaging: A review

Moridian, Parisa, Ghassemi, Navid, Jafari, Mahboobeh, Salloum-Asfar, Salam, Sadeghi, Delaram, Khodatars, Marjane, Shoeibi, Afshin, Khosravi, Abbas, Ling, Sai Ho, Subasi, Abdulhamit, Alizadehsani, Roohallah, Gorriz, Juan M., Abdulla, Sara A, Acharya, U. Rajendra

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a brain condition characterized by diverse signs and symptoms that appear in early childhood. ASD is also associated with communication deficits and repetitive behavior in affected individuals. Various ASD detection methods have been developed, including neuroimaging modalities and psychological tests. Among these methods, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) imaging modalities are of paramount importance to physicians. Clinicians rely on MRI modalities to diagnose ASD accurately. The MRI modalities are non-invasive methods that include functional (fMRI) and structural (sMRI) neuroimaging methods. However, diagnosing ASD with fMRI and sMRI for specialists is often laborious and time-consuming; therefore, several computer-aided design systems (CADS) based on artificial intelligence (AI) have been developed to assist specialist physicians. Conventional machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) are the most popular schemes of AI used for diagnosing ASD. This study aims to review the automated detection of ASD using AI. We review several CADS that have been developed using ML techniques for the automated diagnosis of ASD using MRI modalities. There has been very limited work on the use of DL techniques to develop automated diagnostic models for ASD. A summary of the studies developed using DL is provided in the Supplementary Appendix. Then, the challenges encountered during the automated diagnosis of ASD using MRI and AI techniques are described in detail. Additionally, a graphical comparison of studies using ML and DL to diagnose ASD automatically is discussed. We suggest future approaches to detecting ASDs using AI techniques and MRI neuroimaging.


Sentiment Analysis on IMDB Movie Comments and Twitter Data by Machine Learning and Vector Space Techniques

Tarımer, İlhan, Çoban, Adil, Kocaman, Arif Emre

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This study's goal is to create a model of sentiment analysis on a 2000 rows IMDB movie comments and 3200 Twitter data by using machine learning and vector space techniques; positive or negative preliminary information about the text is to provide. In the study, a vector space was created in the KNIME Analytics platform, and a classification study was performed on this vector space by Decision Trees, Na\"ive Bayes and Support Vector Machines classification algorithms. The conclusions obtained were compared in terms of each algorithms. The classification results for IMDB movie comments are obtained as 94,00%, 73,20%, and 85,50% by Decision Tree, Naive Bayes and SVM algorithms. The classification results for Twitter data set are presented as 82,76%, 75,44% and 72,50% by Decision Tree, Naive Bayes SVM algorithms as well. It is seen that the best classification results presented in both data sets are which calculated by SVM algorithm.